Here's an important update on the status of the search for Osama bin Laden. He is compared to another insurgent who battled the British in the 1930's and 1940's in Afghanistan known popularly as the Fakir of Ipi. The Fakir was never caught and the British eventually lost interest in finding him. The article goes on to compare the hunt for bin Laden in the same light. The search isn't going anywhere and the recent arrests of al-Qaeda bigwigs has been described by knowledgeable observers as overhyped. Here's the money quote:

He was a legendary jihadi leader who preached holy war, took on the greatest power of his day and caused thousands of deaths in terror strikes. But as British imperial forces hunted for him year after year in the 1930s and '40s, Mirza Ali Khan simply disappeared into the folds of what are now the Pakistani tribal regions. The search for Khan, who was better known to his British pursuers as the Fakir of Ipi, petered out as the decades passed and people lost interest. "The fakir was never captured," says Pakistani scholar Husain Haqqani. "People say he died of natural causes in 1960."

Is this to be Osama bin Laden's fate as well—an enduring case of justice denied? As the fourth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks draws closer, some critics fear that bin Laden too could slip into the mists of history unless U.S. policy—and luck—changes. "Our teams are getting nowhere," says Gary Schroen, a highly decorated former CIA officer who oversaw CIA operations in the region until August 2001 and still works on contract for the agency (he was in Pakistan in March). As the British found out, the steep, cave-pocked mountains of Waziristan, where many believe bin Laden to be, make up the most difficult military terrain imaginable. "That is an area where, if the people don't want you to be caught, you can stay for a very long time," says Haqqani, a former diplomat now at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington. "Even with modern surveillance technology, bin Laden could end up being like the Fakir of Ipi."

Pakistani Foreign Minister Khursheed Kasuri told reporters last week that he believed bin Laden has been on the run since the capture earlier this month of Abu Faraj al-Libbi, the latest culprit to be identified as Al Qaeda's "No. 3." But Schroen says that both the Pakistanis and the Bush administration have expressed too much confidence that al-Libbi's arrest could lead the hundreds of Special Forces, CIA, FBI and other counterterror officials in Pakistan and Afghanistan to the Qaeda chieftain.

There is no evidence that bin Laden's entourage reacted in panic to the al-Libbi news. According to two Taliban operatives interviewed by NEWSWEEK, whose accounts could not be independently verified, bin Laden has been safely ensconced in a secret, well-protected base along the northern Afghanistan-Pakistan border for more than a year. One source cites bin Laden's security guards, and another cites people in contact with them, as saying that most of the leader's meetings with even trusted aides take place outside the base. "The point is to keep everyone, even his most trusted people, confused as to his real whereabouts," says one of these Taliban officials, whose nom de guerre is Ali Khail. And al-Libbi's proximity to bin Laden was hyped, he says. (Khail, a mujahedin commander during the Soviet war who is now a Taliban propaganda and intel operative, claims to have contacts in bin Laden's camp.) A former senior Taliban intelligence officer who today remains part of the ousted fundamentalist regime's intelligence network concurs: "Libbi doesn't know that much to endanger the sheik [bin Laden]," he says.
- posted by Purple Unicorn @ 1:23 AM

 
Here's a piece by the conservative pundit Mark Steyn about the strategy of Islamists hitting the U.S. on 9-11. It actually made sense to the Islamists because they learned useful things about the West, such as the diasarray of the Western aliance, the flexibility of Western immigration rules and the respect accorded Islam in the West. Here's the money quote:

When bin Laden started yakking on about his “war aims” — taking back Spain, the restoration of the Caliphate — it was easy to scoff, yeah, dream on, loser. But a cursory glance at demographics quickly made it clear that, insofar as Europe has a future, it’s likely to be an Islamic one. That being so, why louse things up by flying planes into buildings? Why not just lie low and in the fullness of time everything you want will come your way? The Wahhabists have successfully radicalized hitherto moderate Muslim communities from Albania to Indonesia; they’ve planted their most radical clerics as in-house padres throughout U.S. prisons and even the armed forces. Why screw things up by doing something so provocative it meets even Bill Cohen’s criteria for a response?

Here’s why. It’s always useful to test the limits of your adversaries, and, though it cost them their camps in Afghanistan and much of their leadership, the 9/11 attacks exposed many useful tidbits about the decadence of the West — the worthlessness of the post-modern NATO “alliance” and the active hostility of many of its key members to the United States, the immense deference accorded not just to Islam but to the most radical Islamic groups, especially when it comes to immigration and other aspects of national security. Many Islamists might have suspected all this, but it’s heartening to have it confirmed: If the “sleeping giant” is hard to wake up, his European pals aren’t sleeping so much as in irreversible comas.
- posted by Purple Unicorn @ 11:31 PM

 
Here's a disturbing scenario whereby the office of the president receives a message from anonymous middle eastern sources. It points out the resolve Iran will show in responding to an attack on its military facilities and contrasts this with the U.S. which values life above all else, making it weaker than Iran in the long run. Here's the money quote:

"When the Ayatollah Khomeini came to power, we tested you by holding your diplomats hostage for 444 days under Jimmy Carter while you, the great superpower, remained helpless and humiliated. When 241 US Marines were blown up in Beirut in 1983, Ronald Reagan turned tail and ran away. We observed how Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter made a deal with North Korea that any child could see was meant to be broken. Now that they have announced they violated that agreement and have nuclear weapons and missiles, we observe your confusion and helplessness.

"You claim to be a super power but your foreign policy is amateurish and your society is weak because your values are corrupt. You lack resolve and you cannot bear the pain of real sacrifice. After we understood your weakness, we began our long-term program to become stronger than you.

"We have learned from the Soviet experience during the Cold War. Over the years, we have implanted many sleeper cells all over your country. Your internal security and border control are weak and allow millions to illegally enter your country and to vanish from sight. If you cannot block massive amounts of drugs from flowing into your country, you certainly cannot block WMD components, which occupy far less volume. Today, our agents are multi-ethnic, men and women, and various ages, so that they resemble ordinary Americans and are nearly invisible. Your country is easy to penetrate and easy to hide out in for long periods.

"We now have developed the ability to inflict any degree of damage on your country that we choose. We can strike anywhere, and in the process, multiply the effects by also paralyzing your population through terror. We can do it anonymously, so you will not know for certain against whom to retaliate because you have so many enemies. Sleeper agents eliminate our need to depend on long-range missiles that also reveal their country of origin when fired.

"We have a variety of WMD in position and are constantly increasing their lethality, along with improved battle tactics. We will retain power in reserve so that you will never know just how much additional damage we could inflict, and any attack on Muslims anywhere will bring additional retaliation on your soil. We have enough power in place now to quickly reduce America to Third World status. The same technology infrastructure that allows you to project power abroad becomes your great internal vulnerability. We have long analyzed your entire internal infrastructure, from your economic vulnerabilities to the psychology of terror, and we know very well how to exploit them all to our advantage.

"Any attempt on your part to root out our sleeper cells would fail because they are so well hidden and also because it might trigger painful retaliation. This means that we can hurt you far more than you can hurt us. Even if you kill millions of us, it will not save you from a devastating response by our sleeper cells on your people. We also have the capability in an extreme situation to simultaneously attack your troops and bases throughout the Middle East while creating havoc inside your country.

"How many millions of Americans are you willing to sacrifice in a war with us? This is our version of the mutual assured destruction policy of the Cold War, but with a big difference. Unlike the Soviets, we do not fear death, while you are terrified over incurring small loses. Even exterminating Iran still leaves over 1.2 billion enraged Muslims in the world seeking vengeance, plus a devastating cutoff in your oil imports.

"Despite your great offensive power, including nuclear weapons, you are actually more vulnerable than we are, and this is now going to cost you dearly. You have foolishly waited too long to confront us and now it is too late for you to safely do so.
- posted by Purple Unicorn @ 9:51 PM